Asia Market Quick Take – 6 March, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Trump seeks to influence Iran’s leadership
• Equities: Stocks retreated as Dow fell 1.6%; Marvell up 14% in after hours.
• FX: USD strengthens on oil surge, while EUR drops amid inflation fears
• Commodities: Oil set for biggest weekly surge since 2022
• Fixed income: US 10‑year at 4.13%, outperforming Bunds and Gilts that cheapened more

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump administration might release emergency reserves and waive fuel requirements to address rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict. Prices surged 20% as tensions halted Strait of Hormuz shipments. Trump seeks influence over Iran's leadership as Israeli airstrikes persist; Iran denies seeking a ceasefire.
• US initial jobless claims were steady at 213,000 in late February, below the expected 215,000. Continuing claims rose by 46,000 to 1,868,000, surpassing the expected 1,850,000, reflecting labor market stability. Federal employee claims decreased by 25 to 529, amid government shutdown scrutiny.
• US nonfarm productivity rose 2.8% in Q4 2025, exceeding the expected 1.9%. Output increased 2.6%, while hours worked decreased by 0.2%. Manufacturing productivity fell 1.9% as output and hours worked declined. Durable goods productivity dropped 3.0%; nondurable fell 0.2%. 2025's average productivity growth was 2.2%, down from 3.0% in 2024.
• US employers announced 48,307 job cuts, down from January's 108,435 and last year's 172,017. Tech led with 11,039 cuts, driven by AI impacts and rising costs. Education and manufacturing followed with 5,417 and 4,109 cuts. More layoffs may occur due to US involvement in Iran. Tech faced the most cuts this year at 33,330, followed by transportation (31,702) and health care/products (19,228).

Equities: 

• US - US stock futures steadied on Friday following Thursday's losses, where the Dow fell 1.61%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 shed 0.56% and 0.26%, respectively. Concerns over the Iran conflict and rising oil prices weighed on markets, with consumer staples, materials, and industrials leading declines. Notable hits included Caterpillar down 3.6% and GE Aerospace losing 3.4%, amid fears over supply chain and margins. Marvell rose 14% on strong fiscal 2028 forecast, expecting revenue to grow nearly 40% by then. They also expect revenue to grow 30% in fiscal 2027 to $11b vs $10b est.
• EU - European stocks fell sharply on Thursday, following North American losses, as the Middle East conflict threatened economic stability. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 dropped 1.7% and STOXX 600 fell 1.4%, impacted by rising energy costs due to Iran-Israel tensions. Natural gas price hikes increased bond yields and led to declines in banking stocks like Santander, UniCredit, and Deutsche Bank, each losing around 3%. Industrial firms Siemens and Safran also fell over 3%, while DHL dropped 4.6% due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Asia - Asian markets saw a robust rebound after days of heavy selling, spurred by bargain hunting and reports suggesting easing Middle East tensions. South Korea's Kospi surged 9.6% on the back of Samsung Electronics' 11.3% gain. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix climbed 1.9%, driven by banking and appliance sectors, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial rising 3.4%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%, buoyed by 38 billion yuan inflows into equity ETFs targeting resources and energy sectors. While Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.3%, mainland investors recorded a historic HK$27.7 billion outflow. Improved global risk appetite, bolstered by strong US economic data, lifted the MSCI Asia Pacific Index by 2.2%.

Earnings this week:

• Friday - Embraer, Algonquin Power, Genesco, Drilling Tools International

FX:

• USD strengthened for the third day in a row, driven by a surge in crude oil prices, which reached their highest since July 2024 before retreating. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw a 0.34% rise. All G-10 currencies fell, with the CAD showing resilience among peers.
• EUR fell 0.21% against USD to 1.1609, remaining below its 200-day moving average of 1.1672. Market pessimism persists due to inflation concerns from the Middle East conflict, with ECB officials warning of rising inflation expectations. EUR declined against GBP and franc, with EURGBP down 0.1% and EURCHF slipping again, as the CHF remains a haven.
• In the USDJPY pairing, the USD continued its upward trajectory, reaching 157.48, with session highs approaching the March monthly peak of 157.97.
• AUDUSD saw significant movement, with the AUD declining 0.9% to 0.7010 after having dropped as much as 1.4% earlier.

Commodities:

• Gold was on course for its first weekly decline in more than a month. Gold steadied after losing more than 1% in the previous session, pressured by a stronger US dollar amid a Middle East conflict that shows no sign of easing, with bullion near $5,090 an ounce in early trade.
• Copper fell below $13,000 a tonne as LME inventories rose 7.9% to 282,200 tonnes, a 16‑month high and the highest since October 2024.
• Oil is set for its biggest weekly surge since 2022 as the Middle East war disrupts energy markets and producers, importers and shippers struggle with the fallout, with WTI up 18% this week but futures slipping back toward $79 on Friday after President Donald Trump signalled “imminent action” to ease price pressures, and Brent near $85 after hitting its highest since mid‑2024 on Thursday.

Fixed income:

• Treasury futures softened as oil extended gains to $81 a barrel and European bond losses lifted yields, while heavy corporate issuance whipsawed swap spreads amid hedging flows and added upward pressure to cash yields, with the US 10‑year ending around 4.13%, 3bp cheaper and outperforming bunds and gilts, whose 10‑year yields cheapened by 9–10bp.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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